US election explained: Could the abortion debate decide the US presidency?

On June 24th, 2022 the US supreme court overturned Roe v Wade, the 1973 legal decision which had established the right to access abortion across the United States. After decades of political lobbying and argument, abortion rights suddenly became a matter for individual states rather than for the federal government to decide. It was a triumph for the anti-abortion lobby but created a problem for Republican politicians who had backed their cause. Donald Trump’s appointment of three conservative judges to the supreme court had delivered the six-three majority which made the decision possible. But opinion polls consistently show a clear majority of Americans support abortion rights and the issue has galvanised voters across the country.
While draconian limits have been introduced in some Republican-controlled states, ballot measures in others have already established the right to abortion at state level, including in strongly Republican-supporting states like Kansas. These ballots acted as an activating force in the 2022 midterm elections in places like Michigan, helping Democrats to take power.
It remains an open question whether abortion will have a major impact on the presidential race, though Donald Trump has been forced to shift his position more than once on the issue, and his running mate JD Vance has also had to retreat from his earlier support for a nationwide abortion ban. Trump now says that abortion is a matter for the individual states, but had to shift again during the summer over whether he will vote for a six-week limit on abortions in his home state of Florida (he now says he will).
Kamala Harris’s strong stance on abortion rights is perceived as one of her greatest political assets. Since the supreme court decision, she has emerged as one of the most forceful and articulate advocates for the pro-choice side. Her advocacy on the issue over the last two years helped to shift perceptions of her skills as a politician following less than positive coverage of her early performance as vice-president.
Harris has promised to sign federal legislation guaranteeing the right to abortion. Realistically, however, there is no prospect of that happening as it would require not just a majority in the House of Representatives but a super-majority of two thirds of the vote in the Senate. However, there is little doubt that the ending of Roe v Wade has been politically advantageous for Democrats, who hope their voters will be more likely to turn out on election day as a result.